Dynamic Behavior of Nascent Bioenergy Supply Chains Competing for Shared Resources

In our previous work, we presented a novel multi-time-stage input-output-based modeling framework for simulating the dynamics of nascent bioenergy supply chains. For this discrete-time model, the production level within the supply chain at any given time interval was assumed to be dependent on the output surplus or deficit relative to targets in the previous interval or intervals. In our approach, the technology matrix, A, includes coefficients denoting flows of products (e.g., biofuels), intermediates (e.g., feedstocks) and environmental goods (e.g., land and water resources or pollutants), while the influence matrix, B, signifies the strength of the influence of flow surpluses and deficits on the rate of production capacity growth within the supply chain Introducing a feedback control term enables the system to regulate the dynamics through government regulations or economic incentives, thereby suppressing the undesirable dynamic behavior of the uncontrolled dynamic model such as oscillation or instability. In this paper, we apply our modeling framework to the analysis of the dynamic behavior of two nascent bioenergy supply chains competing for shared resources such as land or water. Numerical simulations are used to assess the effects of key system parameters in matrices A and B on the growth trajectories of the competing bioenergy systems. We also consider the effect of relative time lags to determine under which conditions a head start in the development of one supply chain results in a permanent advantage over the competing system. Finally, the key policy implications of the results of these numerical simulations are discussed